My Daughter came to me tonight and told me that she had uncovered some very disturbing statistics about our state. "Are you sure you want show me?" I said, "I'm probably going to ask you some weird questions about them."
She had me look anyway, and with my fair warning, I looked over her shoulder at the statistics she was so concerned about. It turns out that there is a deficit between the amount of energy we consume and the amount of energy that is produced from WWS, Wind, Water, and Sun.
"It's so much," she complained. "And other states are doing so much better than we are." All very interesting. And this, dear reader gets us to the core of statistic and why they can be so deceptive. We really have no idea whether they are good or bad. How has the energy mix changed in the last 3, 5, or 10 years? What are the costs of generating that energy? Who pays for it? What has been happening to the costs.
The huge problem with statistics is that they are a point in time. Take a snapshot of a busy street and you can tell any story you want about what you see in it. You can use it to "prove" just about any pet theory you want (more or less). A statistic is just a snapshot of a moment in time, a certain configuration of variables that will change before you can even write them down, let alone perform a regression analysis.
When someone tells you how many rich people there are, or the average height of chihuahuas in Los Angeles, ask yourself, are the people (or chihuahuas) in that statistic the same people (chihuahuas) that would be represented by it today?
The answer is probably no.
Statistics are a fine way to begin an investigation, but they are a terrible way to end one.
And on that note, I am going to end this one.
She had me look anyway, and with my fair warning, I looked over her shoulder at the statistics she was so concerned about. It turns out that there is a deficit between the amount of energy we consume and the amount of energy that is produced from WWS, Wind, Water, and Sun.
"It's so much," she complained. "And other states are doing so much better than we are." All very interesting. And this, dear reader gets us to the core of statistic and why they can be so deceptive. We really have no idea whether they are good or bad. How has the energy mix changed in the last 3, 5, or 10 years? What are the costs of generating that energy? Who pays for it? What has been happening to the costs.
The huge problem with statistics is that they are a point in time. Take a snapshot of a busy street and you can tell any story you want about what you see in it. You can use it to "prove" just about any pet theory you want (more or less). A statistic is just a snapshot of a moment in time, a certain configuration of variables that will change before you can even write them down, let alone perform a regression analysis.
When someone tells you how many rich people there are, or the average height of chihuahuas in Los Angeles, ask yourself, are the people (or chihuahuas) in that statistic the same people (chihuahuas) that would be represented by it today?
The answer is probably no.
Statistics are a fine way to begin an investigation, but they are a terrible way to end one.
And on that note, I am going to end this one.
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